Last Game (07.01.12):
Indians 6, Orioles 2
WP: Justin Masterson (5-7, 3.92)
LP: Brian Matusz (5-10, 5.42)

Up Next:
Vs. Angels 07.02.12 7:05p

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #13 C Chun Chen

6'1", 200 lbs, 23 in 2012
Bats: Right; Throws: Right

2011 Stats (AA Akron): .262, 16 HR, 70 RBI, .782 OPS, 2.84 K/BB

So, following up two AAA National Championship seasons, the pickins will be a bit slim in Columbus this season.  Between the failed prospects (Matt LaPorta), utter has-beens (Jose Lopez was an All-Star), and people that I've never even heard of (who the hell is Chris Seddon?), Mike Sarbaugh is gonna have to break out the big coaching guns this year.  One ray of sunshine will be catcher Chun Chen.  Despite suffering through an injury plagued season (not to worry, none of them should be chronic), Chen led the AA Aeros in both home runs and RBI.  True, his OPS was down (.924 in 2010) and his K/BB was way up (1.35 in 2010), but a great a deal of his focus was on improving his defense.  While Chun is considered about an average receiver, that's pretty high praise for a kid who hadn't played the position before 2008.  In fact, Akron skipper Chris Tremie (formely the organization's catching coordinator) helped him to 34.5% caught stealings, good for 3rd in the Eastern League.  Even so, Chen certainly shows more big league promise as a hitter than as a defender.  The 16 homers of 2011 were a career high and if he can replicate the gap power a year earlier (38 doubles), he might just be the right-handed bat that the club needs on the lakefront.  Alternatively, both his English and Spanish are works in progress and would preclude MLB catching duties if they are not ready when his bat is.  Remember that he is young and will likely see only a September cup of coffee in 2012.  Regardless of whether he is a year away or where he might play, it is nice to see a talented youngster with a big righty bat, who is not significantly hindered by injuries.

Up Next: #12 - OF Luigi Rodriguez

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Mid Market What?

Yesterday, the Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a 9yr, $214mil contract, the fourth richest of all-time behind A-Rod, A-Rod and the Angels' deal with Albert Pujols.  From everything that I had heard recently about Detroit ($8,000 average home value, 14% unemployment in 2009), I could not imagine the Tigres to be any less of a mid-market team that the Tribe.  So, I decided to look it up.  According to Forbes data that is about 8 months old, the Indians are the #25 valued MLB team at $353mil, while the Tigers are #21 at $385mil.  Both team peaked in value during the 2008 campaign (you know, just before the shit trickled down out of the fan into the sports world) at $417mil and $407mil respectively, but Detroit has rebuilt since then while the Wahoos have continued to bleed worth (including a precipitous $40mil drop 2011 over 2010 based on poor attendance, I'm looking at you Cleveland).  Larry Dolan has managed to keep his operating income in the black over the past decade, while Michael Ilitch has lost about $30mil over each of the past 3 seasons.  He might be willing to spend more on payroll (the Tigers have increased their salaried payouts consistently over the past 10 years and have paid about $150mil in each of the last 3) because he has seen a 370% return on his $82mil investment of 1992.  Dolan, on the other hand, has seen just 9% since he purchased the club in 2000 and has chosen to keep payroll under $85mil in 6 of the last 10 years.  Is it the chicken or the egg?  Just to bring everything up to date, the Tribe's 2012 payroll should be about $80mil and Detroit's around $170mil.   So, despite the fact that each Indians fan gives about $47/yr to the organization (as opposed to $31/yr for the Tigers), Larry Dolan is a cheap bastard.  A city that has 9.5% unemployment and a crumbling infrastructure has landed a fish a 100x bigger than anything our guys even considered.  The brain trust could not even give me Josh Willingham.  All I wanted was Josh freakin' Willingham, but they would not promise him a starting job (mostly because they head over heels for Grady Sizemore's cock) and he landed with yet another division rival.  Fuck me.

Here's to praying for Dan Gilbert.

Cheers.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #14 OF Thomas Neal

6'2", 225 lbs, 24 in 2012
Bats: Right; Throws: Right

2011 Stats (AAA Fresno/ AAA Columbus): .289, 2 HR, 26 RBI, .734 OPS, 4.07 K/BB


Acquired from the Giants last summer in exchange for Orlando Cabrera, Neal struggled through an injury plagued season both before and after the trade.  While he placed in the Baseball America Top 100 prior to the 2010, Thomas has yet to duplicate his phenomenal 2009 production (.337, 22 HR, 90 RBI, 1.010 OPS).  Still, his AA season (.799 OPS, 11 SB) was successful, before a recurring shoulder problem and a heal issue ruined his 2011.  Neal is right-handed (Yay!) line drive hitter who rakes against lefties and was still respected enough to place #7 on San Francisco's prospect list last year.  While the power boon of '09 is likely an abberation, Thomas has all of the intangibles to be a third or fourth outfielder at the big league level.  In fact, every single opinion that I have read has said exactly as much.  The only troubling number is his massive K/BB value, but last year's ratio is double the average of his other seasons combined (2.02) and his career .371 OBP goes a long way in mitigating it anyway.  Assuming that he can keep his shoulder healthy, he has an above average arm and plays all three outfield effectively.  Although I honestly do not expect Neal to compete for a spot out of Spring Training, I do see him rebounding well with Columbus and joining the Indians before summer's end.  He will help the Tribe and help them soon, that's why they kept him on the 40-man roster and that is why he is ranked so high on this list.

Up Next: #13 C Chun Chen

Monday, January 9, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #15 1B Beau Mills

6'3", 200 lbs, 25 in 2012
Bats: Left, Throws: Right

2011 Stats (AA Akron/ AAA Columbus): .289, 18 HR, 67 RBI, .860 OPS, 1.84 K/BB

What?  Who?  I thought that we had declared this guy a bust long ago.  So, how did the 2007 1st rounder put himself back on the map?  Mills got healthy, screwed his head on straight and, most importantly, the kid hit.  Beau remains a line drive hitter with power to all fields and a serviceable defender.  That sounds awesome, but wasn't that also true during the two full seasons (one middling, one truly dissapointing) that the kid spent at AA?  Well, Mills had a wicked 2008 at Kinston (.293, 21, 90, .880) before pushing through an adjustment year at Akron (.267, 14, 83, .724) in 2009.  2010 was riddled with injury and incident as Beau fought a nagging intercostal strain all year and dealt with an assualt charge (Bar brawl, Josh Tomlin was charged as well, everything was eventually dropped) leading to just an awful season (.241, 10, 72, .689).  2011 began inauspiciously as well, with Mills in extended Spring Training rehabbing an Achilles strain.  Then, Beau got into game action and simply tore the cover off of the ball.  His .880 OPS at Akron matched his career high and the .822 he posted after his promotion to AAA was nearly a hundred points higher than his first AA campaign.  It seems as if he has figured it out.  The strange thing is Mills projects offensively much like Jason Kipnis.  There will be bursts of power, but the bacon will be made on fighting off tough pitches and consistently driving the ball to the gaps.  If you are looking for a single statistic to define this son of an MLB skipper (see Brad Mills), that is RBI.  Even when he was struggling, Beau found a way to bring the runs home.  He is, sadly, a left handed batter, but if Mills can produce again in Columbus, he will be on speed dial when Matt LaPorta hits .220 and/or Travis Hafner sprains his eyebrow.

Up Next: #14 OF Thomas Neal

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #16 LHP Giovanni Soto

6'3", 180 lbs, 21 in 2012

2011 Stats (Rookie League/ A+ Kinston): 4-4, 3.13, 1.19 WHIP, .232 OBA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9

The fruit of 2010's Jhonny Peralta trade, Soto has produced phenomenal numbers throughout his minor league career (17-12, 2.64), including a pair of A ball shutouts, which is quite uncommon.  While he does not have an overwhelming fastball (86-90 mph depending on 2-seam vs 4-seam), he supplements the offering with an outstanding cutter that absolutely destroys left-handed hitters.  One would also expect a increase velocity as he builds mass and arm strength.  Giovanni adds a "slurvy" curveball and a change that he commands well, but with which he needs to develop consistency.  He induces the high-rate of ground balls (1.77 GO/AO) that is so enticing to the Indians and only magnified by the fact that he is left handed.   Anyone care to hazard a guess on the only monkey wrench in the works?  Soto missed about 2 months last summer with left elbow neuritis.  The organization has been extremely cautious during his return, using him in relief at the tail end of 2011 as well as in the winter league.  While Gio still projects as a starter, there have been internal discussion about converting him to the bullpen.  Such a move would significantly diminish his value especially considering his vast array of pitches and the fact that he has already built his IP/GS to 5.1.  The brain trust loves his intangibles (aggressiveness, savvy, confidence, etc) with VP of Player Deveelopment Ross Atkins definitively stating "he is a Major League pitcher."  Soto should begin 2012 at AA Akron, I would hope, in the rotation.

Up Next: #15 1B Beau Mills

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #17 LeVon Washington

5'11", 170 lbs, 20 in 2012
Bats: Left, Throws: Right

2011 Stats (A Lake County): .218, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 15/21 SB, .647 OPS, 1.82 K/BB

Too be sure, Washington has a ton of talent.  Known as an amateur as a "toolsy" player, he can do a little bit of everything.  The speed (4 3B as well) and arm (11 OF assists) are evident; while the average, power (.315 SLG) and defense (6 OF errors) seem to be lagging behind.  Before becoming the Indians' 2nd round pick in 2010, LeVon was a 2009 1st round selection by Tampa Bay, declining to sign.  Despite a letter of intent to the University of Florida, poor SAT scores forced him to junior college between the drafts.  Washington did not handle the experience well.  A lack of focus combined with a rehabbing right shoulder led to a lost season.  The situation reinforced character concerns about the talented youngster and helped push him down to the Tribe in round #2.  Additionally, the injury bug has followed LeVon to the pros.  He had hip surgery prior to 2011 and was hampered the entire season by a nagging knee injury.  To me, there seem to be a ton of red flags.  Many are very high on Washington, often dazzled by amazing metrics (i.e. 4.0 seconds home to 1st).  I agree that his ceiling is through the roof, but until the kid shows me some production, my skepticism will remain.

Up Next: #16 LHP Giovanni Soto

Friday, January 6, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #18 RHP Hector Rondon

6'3", 180 lbs, 24 in 2012

2011 Stats (A- Mahoning Valley): 0-0, 3.00, 1.00 WHIP, .250 OBA, 0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9

Everything was going perfectly for Rondon through the 2009 season.  He had followed up an excellent 2008 (11-6, 3.60, 9.0 K/9) at Kinston with an equally impressive year (11-10, 3.38, 8.4 K/9) split between Akron and Columbus. Then, the proverbial roof caved in.  After never surrendering more than 13 home runs in any career season, Hector served up 12 in his first seven 2010 starts.  He was quickly diagnosed with a UCL strain in his pitching elbow and shut down indefinitely.  Rondon chose a rest and rehab program, which progressed nicely until a bullpen session in August resulted in more intense pain.  Does anyone know how to repair a UCL?  Yup, Tommy John surgery.  Hector came back on the short end of the 12-18 month recovery period to pitch for the Scrappers at the close of 2011.  In addition to rebuilding arm strength, Rondon will have to overcome his removal from the 40-man roster in November.  Personally, I believe that if the Tribe had not already written in their starting rotation, a different move would have been made and Hector would have competed for a back end spot during spring camp.

So, with all of that stacked against him, what do like about Rondon?  His fastball, of course!  Before the injury, he was hitting 96 on the gun and, according to Indians VP of Player Development Ross Atkins, has regained every bit of that velocity post-surgery, if not more.  His secondary pitches, a slider and a straight change, are merely average by MLB standards, but have been the focus of Hector's off-season.  An extremely mature and diligent person, I would not be surprised to see great strides in these offerings come Spring Training.

While there have been discussion about moving him to the bullpen, those conversation have been tabled pending Rondon's 2012 performance.  I have every expectation that Hector will return to form in 2012 and, assuming he produces, should be among the top options should another starter be needed in the bigs. 

Man, I sure am sick of detailing the talent squandered within the organization thanks to injury...

Up Next: #17 OF LeVon Washington

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Indian Winter

Aaron Cunningham
If, like me, you have become so disgusted with the front office's reluctance to make a serious play for a mid level free agent (a right handed, power bat, maybe!), then you, as well, are a bit fuzzy on the gaggle of scrubs that the Tribe has added to the fold since the pain ended in late September.  Time to play catch-up.

Major League Locks

RHP Derek Lowe - Lowe is coming of the worst year of his career (9-17, 5.05) and has one foot in the grave (he turns 39 on June 1).  Still, he is a proven innings eater (averaging 33 GS, 203 IP since 2002) and was 16-12 just 2 years ago.  A solid add (especially since the team gave up bupkis to get him), I have Lowe penciled into the #4 slot in the rotation, ahead of Fausto Carmona and behind Josh Tomlin.

Major League Possibles

OF Aaron Cunningham - The Tribe effectively traded 2 good young arms (Cory Burns to SD for Cunningham and Josh Judy lost on waivers to the Reds to open a spot on the 40-man) for him, so they must think a good deal of Baseball America's #55 pre-2009 prospect.  Frankly, I just don't see it.  Assuming that everyone stays healthy, Aaron will be in competition with the likes of Shelley Duncan and the soon to be discussed Felix Pie for the utility outfield spot.  We know that we like Duncan's clubhouse presence, so the shortcoming must be statistical.  Let's take a look at the MLB careers of the two right handed bats (Duncan vs. Cunningham) - BA (.239 vs .231) wash; OPS (.754 vs .664) strong for Duncan; defensive total range per year (0 vs -4) again strong for Duncan especially since Shelley's numbers jumps to +1 when you discount his time at 1B; PA/K (3.94 vs 4.62) goes to Cunningham; but K/BB (2.83 vs 3.40) and K/HR (5.67 vs 14.2) both go solidly to Duncan.  Long story short (too late), the 26 year old is in the mix, but I know not why.

OF Felix Pie - Felix, whose last name is pronounced pee (like urine) - aye (like Fonzie), has had some limited success at the major league level (.249, .683 OPS) and has some speed (20 SB, 13 3B in 398 games), but his true upside comes in the field where he has a +14 rTot/yr (defensive runs saved per season) in the outfield.  Pie will bring a different dynamic to the utility outfield battle, which is why I consider the 27 year old (despite his left handed hitting handicap) the only real challenger to Duncan.

2B Jose Lopez - An All-Star with Seattle in 2006, Lopez averaged .277 and 82 RBI from '06 to '09, topping out with 25 HR and 96 RBI in that last season.  Jose has fallen on hard times since, splitting his 2011 campaign between the Marlins and Rockies and hitting just .216.  His defense has dipped as well as the plus defender at second and near gold glover at third lapsed into mediocrity last season.  The 28 year old seems to have hit the wall well early of expectation.  Still, his plus power and right handed bat will put him in the utility infield competition with Jason Donald and Cord Phelps.

AAA Depth

C Matt Pagnozzi - Quality catchers are always in high demand.  Pagnozzi comes from good blood as his uncle Tom (nyuk, nyuk) caught 12 years in the big leagues and won 3 gold gloves.  29 year old Matt sports a career .310 major league average, despite rapping just .220 over 9 minor league seasons.  He did bat .275 with a .758 OPS at AAA last season and is well known for his defense, throwing out 35% of runners for his career.  It would take at least one injury to put Pagnozzi into competition for a major league spot.

3B Andy LaRoche - I know what you're thinking, "Is this the LaRoche that can hit or the one that can't?"  Yeah, sorry, Andy owns a .226 career MLB average with a .642 OPS.  On the plus side, LaRoche can play all four infield spots and has dabbled in left field.  The 28 year old is well above average at third with a career rTot/yr of +7.  With the utility depth mentioned above and Jack Hannahan and Lonnie Chisenhall ahead of him at third, I doubt that we will see Andy on the lake this summer.

RHP Robinson Tejada - Taking pitching cast offs from Kansas City does not the path to a pennant pave.  That being said, Tejada is just one season removed from 127 Royals appearances that netted a 3.57 ERA and 9.2 K/9.  Even with his lively 95 mph fastball, Rob spent most of 2011 at AAA after missing about six weeks with right shoulder inflammation.  With all of the young right-handers in the system, I fail to see the wisdom in bringing the 30 year old on board, but expect him to be a phone call away at Columbus whenever the injury bug should hit the 'pen.

Oh, yes, in addition to losing Burns and Judy, RHP Adam Miller signed with the f'ing Yankees today.  Even still, best of luck to Adam, he's certainly paid his dues.

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #19 RHP - Jason Knapp

6'5", 235 lbs, 21 in 2012

2011 Stats: Did Not Play

Let's be clear, Jason has the best stuff in the Indians system.  His fastball blazes in at 99 mph and scouts predict that, given the opportunity to refine a repeatable delivery, Knapp should break triple digits.  His second pitch is a big 12-6 curveball that he both commands within the zone and can use as a swing-and-miss pitch.  While his change-up and slide piece are still developing, his work ethic would indicate their success to be simply a matter of time.  Jason has an imposing frame that backs up his powerful delivery and aggressive mindset.  Having grown up in New Jersey, he should have no issue acclimating to the Aprils and Septembers (Octobers?) of the North Coast.  So what's the problem?  Yeah, you guessed it: injuries.  I don't know if you're sensing the theme with these young pitchers, but soooooooo many of them have had arm trouble and Jason is the poster boy.  When he was acquired from the Phillies as the lynch pin the Cliff Lee trade, Knapp was experiencing bicep tendinitis.  The Indians were unaware and by no fault of their own.  MLB does not allow MRIs as part of pre-trade evaluations.  Oops, bad luck.  After pitching just four games in the organization, Jason resigned himself to off-season arthroscopic shoulder surgery.  An overly cautious front office then kept him out of game action until late July in 2010.  2011 was the worst of all.  Held back in extended Spring Training with weakness in his throwing shoulder, his season was, in early June, scrapped for a second shoulder procedure.  Knapp's career numbers (6-10, 3.63, 1.20 WHIP, .208 OBA, 4.1 BB/9, 12.0 K/9) and those in the Tribe organization (1-2, 3.60, 1.18 WHIP, .190 OBA, 3.6 BB/9, 13.3 K/9) are outstanding, but with the two shoulder surgeries on his resume and 0 innings pitched above A ball, his big league chances have now been relegated to that of a "long shot."  That, my friends, is why the man with the highest ceiling in the system is ranked #19; the smart money is on the guy never staying healthy enough to actually make it to the bigs.

Up Next: #18 RHP Hector Rondon

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #20 RHP Rob Bryson

6'1", 200 lbs, 24 in 2012

2011 Stats (A Lake County/ A+ Kinston/ AA Akron): 2-1, 2.19, 1.12 WHIP, .199 OBA, 3.7 BB/9, 11.0 K/9

Another talented, yet injury plagued young pitcher; Bryson is a strikeout machine.  The 11.0 K/9 last season may seem impressive, but Rob posted 17.1 for Kinston in 2010 and averages 11.9 for his career.  These big numbers are thanks to a 96 mph fastball that he rides in on the hands of hitters from both sides and two quality secondary offerings.  A "wicked" slider is devastating to righties and his consistently improving change has nearly reached par with the slide.  Additionally, he is working on a "get me over" curve to complete the arsenal. 

Bryson is the last piece of the CC Sabathia trade; the one that we haven't heard from due to his relative youth and extensive time on the disabled list.  While the most severe setback was a rotator cuff tear that affected him from late '08 until mid '10, Rob almost missed two months last summer with a broken foot.  As opposed to many who have spent large chunks of time on the DL, fagility is not a concern for Bryson.  He is fully recovered from the shoulder surgery and the foot was a Mantle-esque freak as he stepped in a hole while running at his high school field. 

You might ask what is so special about this particular right handed reliever, something that the Indians have a plenitude of.  First of all, there is now a monkey full of hope riding on Rob.  With Matt LaPorta an unmitigated bust and the organization seemingly lukewarm on Michael Brantley (although I don't have any idea why), Bryson is the last opportunity to salvage a big contributor from the ill-conceived Sabathia deal.  Secondly, the dude's stuff really is electric.  It is difficult to explain without watching him throw, but the ball simply explodes out of his hand and, when he is on, Rob is about as unhittable as they come.  Combine all of this with an easy delivery and a strong lower half and Bryson has every opportunity to become a premier back-end pitcher in the bigs.  Expect him to begin 2012 at AAA.

Up Next: #19 RHP Jason Knapp

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #21 LHP Kelvin De La Cruz

6'5", 190 lbs, 23 in 2012

2011 Stats (AA Akron): 5-6, 4.19, 1.48 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9, 9.9 K/9

Following a stellar 2008 season (12-6, 2.98, 9.4 K/9 across three levels) Kelvin was added to the Indians 40-man roster during the off-season.  He has done little statistically since (14-16, 4.67, 5.63 BB/9), including a 2009 campaign during which he pitched fewer than 20 innings due to a severe UCL strain in his throwing elbow.  While DLC's stuff (95 mph fastball, hammer 12-6 curve & a solid change) remains impressive, the guy who made his name as "Carmona left" seems to have forgotten how to get groundballs.  After averaging 1.72 GO/AO in '08, the number bottomed out at just 0.54 last season.   Many suggest that the drop is due to awkwardness resulting from the aforementioned injury.  Additionally, Kelvin missed five weeks during the middle of last summer with left shoulder soreness and, upon returning, pitched exclusively out of the bullpen.  That transition proved incredibly effective as DLC recorded his first five relief outs via the whiff and posted outstanding numbers (7 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 11 K) that extended into his AAA debut (IP, 11/8 Pitches/Strikes) during a post-season game.  Given his relative frailty and the fact that Kelvin has never averaged more than 4.94 innings per start over the course of any season, it seems phenomenally likely that his future lies in the bullpen.  The only factor limiting De La Cruz, who will probably begin 2012 at Columbus, on his road to the MLB bullpen will be that of command.  In fact, his career BB/9 of 4.9 has actually been about half a walk higher over the past two season.  Again, the issue of injury enters the picture, preventing Kelvin from finding a comfortable delivery to repeat with any consistency.  In spite of this hurdle, DLC will probably breathe big league air in 2012, though his tenure and level of success will ultimately depend on his ability to overcome it.

Up Next: #20 RHP Rob Bryson

Monday, January 2, 2012

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #22 OF Nick Weglarz

6'3", 240 lbs, 24 in 2012
Bats: Left, Throws: Left

2011 Stats (AA Akron): .179, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .666 OPS, 1.19 K/BB

After rocketing to prominence with 24 dongs in 2007 and dropping an .889 OPS on a half season of AAA in 2010, Nick one again succumbed to the scourge of injury.  Having previously missed time with hand, shin, back, & thumb injuries; Weglarz tore the meniscus in his left knee during spring camp last year.  He started rehab at Akron in early June and just never left.  In addition to the inconsistency evident from his numbers, Nick missed additional time with a bruised eye.  Ugh.  Wegs has a whole lot to offer the big league club, most notably his combination of power and plate discipline.  Nick had strung together four straight .800+ OPS seasons before the 2011 nightmare.  Even as he limped his was to that sub-Mendoza batting average, his OPS was not horrific and his OBP (.360) was actually 2nd on the Aeros.  Still, one would have hoped that Weglarz could have built some momentum through the year and finished strong.  No such luck.  Nick hit .130 with a .448 OPS in the second half.  Here is the big ray of hope.  Despite the injury history; Wegs is a big, powerful dude who just turned 24 and was polished enough to play for Team Canada during the 2009 WBC.  Even better is the fact that he was drafted as a first baseman.  While he has yet to play the position as a pro, if Nick can produce during spring training and/or early at Columbus, need may dictate that the already rostered (40-man) slugger move back to his natural position.  Write it down.

Up Next: #21 LHP Kelvin De La Cruz