Last Train To Pronkville

Travis Hafner goes deep on 100mph Stephen Strasburg fastball from Daniel Hazard on Vimeo.

Hafner turning around a 100 MPH heater off of Senor Strasburgo.  I was there...

Just In From the Desert

Casey Kotchman

Saddled with discomfort of some very coarse sand in his unnaturally dry vagina, Chris Perez will miss the next 4-6 weeks, putting his availability for Opening Day in question.  Perez pulled a muscle in his left side during his first bullpen session, admitting that he chose to go 100% rather than the 50% or 75% that the training staff recommended.  Noting that he could have chosen to heed medical advice and take it easy on day 1, Perez said "but that's not who I am."  Sheesh.

Vinnie Pestano will close until Pure Rage is ready.

Cheers.

Just In From the Desert

Great use of $5mil.  I am so done w/ Grady Sizemore.  Oh, you didn't hear?  Out past Opening Day with some sort of vagina strain.  He pulled it whilst fielding a ground ball.  Although I would count Felix Pie, Fred Lewis, and Shelley Duncan as strong options to take his place (Michael Brantley can slide to center), do not discount the possibility of Matt LaPorta getting the nod in left.  Remember that Matty was primarily an outfielder before he was acquired by the Indians and this might be the random chance that gives him that last chance to succeed with this organization.

More in a bit...

Cheers

Just In From the Desert

Yay, Derek Lowe can still throw a baseball.  That's something...

The Tribe made two minor moves today.  LHP Kelvin De La Cruz (#21 on my top prospect list) was traded to Texas for cash.  He had been DFAed earlier in the month when Casey Kotchman was added.

Also, two-time All-Star shortstop Cristian Guzman joined camp and took a physical.  The 33-year old sat out 2011 rehabbing a sore right shoulder.  He has a strong relationship with Manny Acta from the time that they shared together with Washington and is expected to be offered a contract tomorrow.

Cheers.

A New Lowe

The other guy is new pitching coach Scott Radinsky.  The news is nothing new.  The top four rotation spots are taken by (in order) Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Tomlin and Lowe.  The guys fighting for the fifth spot are Kevin Slowey, Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff, Zach McAllister and Scott Barnes.

Also, Carlos Santana will see time at DH as the team sees Casey Kotchman as an every day guy.  This means more ABs for Lou Marson and fewer for Travis Hafner.

But we knew all of this already.  Right?

Cheers.

New Suits Suit Yu

Aj Burnett & Erik Bedard of the Pirates.  Hiroki Kuroda of the Yankees.  Jamie Moyer of the Rockies.  And international sensation Yu Darvish of the Rangers.

Just In From the Desert

Ahh, the first signs of spring...

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #1 SS Francisco Lindor

5'11", 175 lbs, 18 in 2012
Bats: Switch; Throws: Right

2011 Stats (SS-A Mahoning Valley): .316, 2 RBI, 1/1 SB, .666 OPS, 5.00 K/BB

While my "peers" and I might disagree on a great number of these prospects, there is one thing that we have a solid quorum on: the man at the top.  Unbelievably, what the so-called "experts" cannot agree on is in which areas Francisco excels.  I have read that everything from his defense at short to his power to his projection as a leadoff man separating him from the herd.  As opposed to echoing any of those sentiments, I am going off on my own.  Many have heard that the ceiling of 2010 first rounder Manny Machado is Alex Rodriguez production.  Here's my thought (because I think in old school SAT analogies) Machado:A-Rod::Lindor:Miguel Tejada.  Frisco (that's what I'm going to call him, props if you can dig out the reference) certainly has a lot of time ahead of him to make his mark and define his identity, but I project him to be a 20ish home run guy with 40 doubles and a .320 average.  Calm down.  That, again, is the ceiling.  With #2 man Tony Wolters sliding to second base and Jason Kipnis to DH, it falls to Lindor to fill what will become a gaping hole at short after Asdrubal Cabrera prices himself out of our mid-market hell.  Frisco sports soft hands and great footwork to compliment a slightly better than average arm.  Most scouts foresee him as a defensive upgrade over AzCab.  So, we have three quarters of the future infield (Lindor, Tony Wolters, Jesus Aguilar) in the top 8 and when you add Lonnie Chisenhall at third base, 2015 looks awfully bright.  Expect Lindor to play a full season at Single-A.  He will begin at Low-A Lake County with a merit promotion to Carolina a distinct possibility.

Up Next:  Up next?  Pitchers and catchers report today, bitches!

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #2 SS Tony Wolters

5'10", 165 lbs, 20 in 2012
Bats: Left; Throws: Right

2011 Stats (SS-A Mahoning Valley): .292, HR, 20 RBI, 19/23 SB, .748 OPS, 1.63 K/BB

The more that I read about Tony, the more that I read the phrase "left-handed Dustin Pedroia."  Sign me up!  While Wolters lacks a highlight skill, he is pretty damn good at just about everything.  The bat-to-ball contact is certainly there, evidenced by his BA and K/BB.  Although this 2010 3rd rounder has only slightly above average speed, his highly developed baserunning instincts led to that 83% success rate and 19 steals in just 69 games (broken hamate bone in spring training).  Similar to Pedroia, he is a work in progress, but Tony equally adept at yanking the ball down the right field line and driving it into the left center field gap.  As his frame fills out from off-season condition, the power will come.  His arm is, again, only average, but Wolters consistently puts himself in good position while fielding the ball, thus maximizing the effect of his throw.  Ultimately it's not going to matter.  Blocked by Asdrubal Cabrera in front and our #1 from behind, Tony seems destined to play second base just like Pedroia.  Defensively, he is much more of a natural than Jason Kipnis, who Baseball America projects as a DH down the road.  Earmarked as a prototype #2 hitter, Wolters is also adept at such lost arts as bunting and pushing the ball to the right side.  Keep an eye out, when Tony makes The Show, he will be there to stay for a very long time.

Up Next: #1 - SS Francisco Lindor

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #3 LHP Nick Hagadone

6'5", 230 lbs, 26 in 2012

2011 Stats (AA Akron/ AAA Columbus): 6-4, 2.79, 1.10 WHIP, .212 OBA, 2.8 BB/9, 9.8 K/9

2011 Stats (MLB Indians): 1-0, 4.09, 0.91 WHIP, .118 OBA, 4.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9

It took Nick awhile to arrive, but he is certainly here now.  After years of bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen, this piece of the 2009 Victor Martinez trade has found himself as a lefty set-up man.  Hagadone's arsenal includes a 96 MPH heater with good movement, a plus slider (devastating to lefties, .127 @ AAA), and an effective straight change.  In addition to the gaudy strikeout numbers, Nick also induces a good number of ground balls (1.01 GO/AO @ AAA) such that fly balls account for just 32% of his outs.  Although his control improved dramatically last season (career 4.7 BB/9), the adrenaline of The Show brought out some hitches in his giddy-up.  Just 3 years removed from Tommy John surgery, Hagadone can be pardoned the lapse, especially because left-handers managed just one single in 14 trips against him at the big league level.  Nick was eased back in cautiously from the surgery and has shown no side effects to his stamina, pitching 80+ innings in each of the past two seasons, including 55 appearances in 2011.  Now, if the Tribe's left-handed relief tandem of Tony Sipp and Rafael Perez had not been so effective last season (or if they had traded one, learn the Kelly Shoppach lesson and sell high!), then Hagadone would be all but guaranteed a spot on the opening day roster.  I still say that Nick has a spot to lose.  Assuming that he does not blow up in spring camp, expect him there against the Jays.

Up Next: #2 - SS Tony Wolters

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #4 RHP Dillon Howard

6'4", 210 lbs, 19 in 2012

2011 Stats (Instructional League): 4 G, 6.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R/ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1.35 ERA, 0.60 WHIP

This prep right-hander was the Indians' 2nd round selection in the 2011 draft.  Be aware that most talent evaluators agreed that Howard's skills were mid-1st round worthy and that he dropped because of his commitment to the University of Arkansas and his affiliation with Scott Boras.  The Tribe went right ahead and payed the price tag ($1.85mil bonus, more than triple his slot recommendation), acquiring themselves an incredibly polished young pitcher.  Dillon's fastball sits at 92 and has since his freshman year of high school.  Given his advanced physical development, he has spent his time developing a nice running action on the pitch and spotting it to different parts of the strike zone.  His complimentary offerings include a tight 11-5 curve (78 MPH), a slurvy slider (82 MPH and something that will be reworked in the minors) and a little used 80ish change.  Howard has shown great repeatability with his motion, one that allows ease of delivery and a deceptive release.  With his prototypical build, he projects as an MLB workhorse, eating innings as a #2 or 3 guy in the rotation.  Of course, his ceiling is much higher.  If Dillon can stay healthy and develop his secondary pitches, he has every opportunity to be the ace of a staff.  Expect Howard to make his pro debut in April, when Low-A Lake County opens their season.

Up Next: #3 - LHP Nick Hagadone

¿Habla Español? ¿Con La Verdad?

In case you don't, this is Not-a-Fausto advising yougn'ns to use their real name.  Ha!

Go here for a more detailed explanation.

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #5 LHP Scott Barnes

6'4", 185 lbs, 24 in 2012

2011 Stats (AA Akron/ AAA Columbus): 8-4, 3.45, 1.22 WHIP, .230 OBA, 3.3 BB/9, 9.7 K/9

Yeah, those numbers look pretty good and Barnes, the fruit of the 2009 Ryan Garko (out of baseball) trade, is only getting better.  His primary breaking pitch, a curve, was shelved during 2010 as the brass felt a slider would better compliment his arsenal, particularly against left-handers.  Now, with the slide piece fully integrated, Scottie is able to work with both pitches as secondary offerings.  His best pitch, by far, is his change-up, of which he has complete command.  The pitch has a bit of back-up action and is staggeringly effective against righties.  The continued development of the slider is key to his success versus left-handed hitter because his fastball sits right around 91.  Basically, Barnes isn't going to overpower anyone.  I love the way that he uses his heater and it is described as having late pop and movement.  I think of Scottie as sort of a left-handed Josh Tomlin, but with better swing-and-miss ability.  As the two breaking balls are refined, his walk totals should drop and that OBA should shine through to an even more impressive WHIP.  Scottie's GO/AO was a flat 1.00 in 2011, which is fine, especially for a guy with his strikeout totals.  Barnes did tear his left ACL making a play off of the mound last July, but, not to worry, he will be entirely recovered and ready to go when spring camp opens.  More importantly, the injury was kind of a freak thing.  That is, it had nothing to do with his mechanics or delivery and, thus, the chances of recurrence are very low.  With Roberto Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona) indefinitely detained in the Domincan, the 5th spot in the rotation is up for grabs and Barnes will be in competition for it against the likes of Kevin Slowey, Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff and Zach McAllister (more on him soon).  Believe you me, if Scottie pitches the best of the bunch at Goodyear, he will be on the opening day roster.

Up Next: #4 - RHP Dillon Howard

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #6 RHP Felix Sterling

6'3", 200 lbs, 19 in 2012

2011 Stats (Arizona Rookie League/ A- Lake County): 4-6, 4.12, 1.33 WHIP, .236 OBA, 4.4 BB/9, 8.8 K/9

Here's the big boy... and he's only 18.  Even though he is still adding mass to his frame and power behind his fastball, his MPH already sits at 94.  As a 16 year-old kid coming in from the Dominican Republic, Felix already had a solid slurve and a functional change.  They have only gotten better.  While he has signinificant development ahead of him command wise, the organization has been incredibly impressed with the young man's ability to miss bats.  The fastball has some back-up action, almost like a cutter, and, thus, lefties beat it into the ground (.197 OBA, 1.36 GO/AO against left handers @ LC) while right-handed batters simply flail (22 K in 22 IP @ LC against righties).  Although Sterling has a long road ahead of him to get to the bigs, coaches rave about his maturity.  I know.  What are they going to say?  Still, it is better than the alternative.  Most of all the brass loves Felix's motion and delivery.  Once he can stick the repetition (this leads to better control), his easy mechanics will go a long way toward preserving his health and allowing him to eat a truck load of innings.  Stick this one in you back pocket.  It will be a few years before he makes The Show, but, when he does, Sterling will be around for a long time.


Up Next: #5 - LHP Scott Barnes

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #7 RHP CC Lee

5'11", 175 lbs, 25 in 2012

2011 Stats (AA Akron/ AAA Columbus): 6-1, 2.40, 1.07 WHIP, .210 OBA, 2.9 BB/9, 12.5 K/9


Wow, those numbers really jump off of the page and they were no aberration.  His career K/9 (11.0), OBA (.217), and GO/AO (1.70 in 2011, 1.49 career) all indicate consistency and improvement in major pitching metrics.  So why isn't this kid higher on the list?  Right handed relievers are a dime a dozen and CC does not project as a closer.  Despite the fact that the kid will very likely be a shutdown set-up man and could do so, like, tomorrow, he simply does play a premium position.

Lee features a three pitch mix starring a 94 MPH fastball with both good movement and good sink, hence the ground balls.  His kicker is a plus slider with a nasty late bite that gives right handed hitters fits and leads to his straight dominance thereof (.177 OBA at AAA).  CC also throws a split change, although it is clearly #3 in his arsenal and does little more than keep the batters honest.  There has been some concern over his low three-quarters arm slot as he is regularly at risk of dropping into a true side-arm and losing a good deal of his pitches' effectiveness, but, in 2011, he showed little occurrence of said issue.

Perhaps the best news of all about Lee is that he has absolutely no history of injury.  He has thrown at least 44 games and 71 innings in each of his pro campaigns and has been noted as having an injury only once.  His oblique strain of 2010 was minor and simply a wear and tear result of his small frame.

The fact of the matter is that CC is ready for the bigs right now, but the Indians' big league bullpen is simply too talented to afford him a spot out of spring camp.  Still, get over his ironic name quickly, because he should be the first righty reliever to be recalled when injury or ineffectiveness rears its ugly head on the lakefront.

Up Next: #6 - RHP Felix Sterling

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #8 1B Jesus Aguilar

6'3", 241 lbs, 21 in 2012
Bats: Right; Throws: Right

2011 Stats (A- Lake County/ A+ Kinston): .284, 23 HR, 82 RBI, .865 OPS, 2.74 K/BB

You want right handed power?  I've got your right handed power right here.  While there is nothing fringe about Aguilar's prospect status, he is ranked higher on this list than he might be because he fits the bill of the Indian's most dire need at the big league level.  Jesus burst onto the scene last year by stroking 19 long balls and a .915 OPS in 95 games for Lake County.  He showed some growing pains in his transition to High-A pitching, but he was by no means embarrassed (.257, .712 OPS).  While Jesus' upside as an imposing power guy is obvious, he does have significant opportunity areas.  The first is his K/BB ratio.  He tends to pile up strikeouts quickly and has particular issue with the breaking ball down and out.  The only way to solve this problem is with repetition and recognition.  As Aguilar continues to accumulate ABs against better and better breaking pitches, his sound approach will reassert itself and the acclimation will come.  The benefit of habit should also be felt in the field.  Although Jesus' defensive is currently sub-par, scouts feel that he has the tools and athleticism to become, at least, an average first baseman.  Expect Aguilar to begin 2012 with the new Carolina team at High-A (that's Kinston relocated) and to advance to Akron if his power numbers warrant promotion.  I'll tell you this, strikeouts or no, if he continues jerk it out of the park as he advances, he could be splashing the home run porch by late 2013.

Up Next: #7 - RHP CC Lee

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #9 RHP Austin Adams

5'11", 185 lbs, 25 in 2012

2011 Stats (AA Akron): 11-10, 3.77, 1.54 WHIP, .280 OBA, 4.2 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

Before we get into anything else, Austin Adams throws 100 MPH just about every time out.  That's why he's so high on this list as an undersized righty whose #1 is as straight as an arrow.  Some of the numbers are good (including a 1.64 GO/AO ratio & 6 HR allowed in 136 IP) and some of them are not (that WHIP is horrendous), but, if you can break triple digits, you're gonna get a shot.  Primarily a shortstop at the collegiate level, Austin spent his first two pro seasons building arm strength.  The organization originally projected him for a bullpen roll (he had closed in college as well), but he has shown such poise and production as a starter, the brain trust is now set on seeing how far young Adams can take it.  The biggest opportunity for Austin is in his repertoire.  Currently, he count can only his fastball and power curve as out pitches.  While he does also feature a straight change and a slider, both are still deep in the development stage.  Austin has shown the ability to keep the ball down and generate a great deal of velocity from his lower half.  The latter should help his arm stay healthy and, thus, keep him in the rotation.  If Adams can refine his complimentary offerings during his AAA time in 2012, he could be an option for the big club as soon as the second half of the season.

Up Next: #8 - 1B Jesus Aguilar

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #10 C Jake Lowery

5'10", 200lbs, 21 in 2012
Bats: Left; Throws: Right

2011 Statistics (SS-A Mahoning Valley): .245, 6 HR, 43 RBI, .792 OPS, 1.04 K/BB

The 2011 Johnny Bench Award winner as the nation's top college catcher was the Indians' 4th round selection last season and came scorching out of the gate, posting a .951 OPS in his first month of pro action.  While his numbers did dip some thereafter (he still led the NYPL in walks and extra base hits), the swoon can attributed to fatigue from a player who caught 90 games for the first season in his life.  Additionally, his 56/54 K/BB ratio speaks of an incredibly disciplined hitter.  Jake's bat is considered a bigger plus than his defense and he certainly showed the ability at the dish during his final season at James Madison.  While the composite bats (no more metal!) do inflate the numbers (the 1.239 OPS is still nothing at which to laugh), Lowery went right ahead and led the nation in RBI (91), runs scored (80) and total bases (200).  Behind the plate, he placed second nationally with 34 runners caught stealing and sixth with 43% caught on his way to making every All-American list imaginable, winning CollegeBaseballInsider.com's hitter of the year and placing among 36 semi-finalists for the Dick Howser player of the year award.  So, yeah, the kid can play.   Like most catchers coming out the collegiate ranks, Jake suffers from having all of his pitches dictated from the dugout.  Thus, while Colonial Athletics Associating coaches voted him both the best defensive backstop and owner of the strongest arm, Lowery still has significant development to do behind the plate.  The thing is, his bat just might not wait.  Jake played 11 games at first and about 30 more at DH last season and how far he advances in 2012 will likely depend on which route the organization chooses to take with him in the field.  I feel that, with Carlos Santana looking more and more like the first baseman of the future and Chun Chen an even bigger question mark defensively, Jake is the guy that the franchise will earmark as its next catcher.  That being said, I would expect Lowery to either begin the season at High-A Kinston or progress there early on.  He certainly has the offense to rise quickly.  If he can effectively hone his catching skills (I mean he did still catch 35% stealing in the Valley, but 5 errors and six passed balls in 25 games caught hurt) in the interim, I can see Jake at the Jake by 2013.

Up Next: #9 - RHP Austin Adams

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #11 LHP Elvis Araujo

6'6", 215 lbs, 20 in 2012

2011 Stats (Arizona Rookie League/ SS-A Mahoning Valley): 9-1, 3.36, 1.29 WHIP, .245 BAA, 3.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9

Another huge arm, another history of injuries.  This big southpaw dazzled in the Dominican Summer League at 16 in 2008 (4-2, 1.89), then blew out his pitching elbow the following spring and ended up missing the next two seasons with Tommy John surgery and rehab.  On the back end, Elvis seems to have recovered rather well.  His fastball comes in around 94 and his heavy breaking ball (alternately referred as a curve or slider, we'll call it a slurve) is devastating, if inconsistent.  The organization had just one simple goal for Araujo last season: make it through the season healthy.  He did and even debuted at single A, although the results were less than spectacular (8.10 ERA, .393 OBA in 2 starts).  His rehab work did give him time to develop a reliable change-up, which, along with his fastball, he is able to throw for strikes and keep down in the zone (1.36 GO/AO in 2011).  Elvis should spend most, if not all, of 2012 at Low-A Lake County, where the brass would like him to build arm strength and increase his workload (just 69.2 innings last season).  Should he find himself unable to harness the slurve (told ya), his stuff would play very well at the back end of the bullpen.  Either way, we won't see him on the lake until 2014 at the earliest.

Up Next: The Top Ten, beginning with C Jake Lowery

Tribe Prospect Countdown: #12 OF Luigi Rodriguez

5'11", 160 lbs, 19 in 2012
Bats: Switch; Throws: Right

2011 Stats (Arizona Rookie League/ A- Lake County): .304, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 18 SB, .779 OPS, 2.90 K/BB

One of my biggest criteria for placement on this list is how soon the player might help the big league club.  Given that Luigi is looooooong way off, a ranking this high speaks incredibly well of his talent and potential.  While he does not have ideal size, we can expect him to add body mass and fill out as a player as he progresses through the system.  Right now, his greatest attribute is his speed.  The 18 steals of 2011 came in half a season as L-Rod did not begin playing until the short-season began due to recovery from a hamate that he broke in Spring Training.  He also amassed 31 steals in the Dominican Summer League in 2010 and complimented that number with 10 triples in 63 games.  While whatever power level he might attain is certainly in the infant stage, he has shown the distinct ability to get the ball into the gap and snag the extra base thanks to his wheels.  At the dish, his best tool is his hand-eye co-ordination.  While it may take some time for him to return to the sub-1.0 K/BB ration that he posted in 2010, he neither gets cheated at the plate nor swings at many bad pitches.  Additionally, Rodriguez does an excellent at squaring up the ball, resulting in scads of sharply hit balls.  Scouting director John Mirabelli once described Luigi as the fastest player he had ever brought into the Indians farm system.  Once he builds more advanced baserunning skills and logs more outfield innings (he is a converted second baseman), he is going to be a hell of a lot of fun to watch.  Too bad that we likely won't see him until 2014.

Up Next: #11 - LHP Elvis Araujo