Sizemore Effect

This week-load of injuries has brought the prodigal Grady Sizemore back to the forefront of my thinking.  It's very easy to recall the glory days (2005-2008) and hard to forget just how beloved Grady was among Tribe fans.  As the face and hope of the franchise, Sizemore could do no wrong.  That was before the injuries.  Over the past three years, he has played a sum total of 104 games, batting .220 with a .659 OPS.  But we're all aware of Grady's diminishing skills and what he hasn't done for the club recent seasons.  Unfortunately, in 2012, he has managed to detract even more substantially from the product on the field. 

Going into this past off-season it was painfully apparent that the Indians needed to bring a right handed power bat into the lineup.  Prince Fielder and the Little Caesar's fortune aside, the Tribe is still mid-market and thus relegated to mid-range free agents at best.  Still, a player like Josh Willingham seemed to be perfectly attainable.  Willingham had set career highs with 29 home runs and 98 RBI with Oakland in 2011 and was looking for 2-3 years at $5-7mil per.  Amazingly this was in the Indians' price range.  Then, on November 23rd, they re-inked Sizemore to a 1-yr, $5mil deal.  Expectation were high.  The brass wouldn't have made the move unless they had some insight into Grady's relative health, right?  Right?  Even after the Sizemore signing, the team still approached Willingham through back channels.  The 2-yr, $15mil offer that they suggested was equatable to the 3-yr, $21 contract he agreed to with the Twins.  So, what was the deal breaker?  The Twins guaranteed Josh an everyday spot in left field, while the Indians, assuming that Sizemore would be in the mix, refused to take the same stance.  Result: Willingham became a Twin on December 11th.

Fast forward to February 24th and Sizemore screws up his back while rehabbing his knee.  He has yet to play a game at any level in 2012.  In Grady's absence, Michael Brantley, the man blocking Willingham in left, slid to center field and Shelley Duncan got the Opening Day nod in left.  Thus far, we have seen Duncan, Johnny Damon, Aaron Cunningham and even Jason Donald take turns in left to abysmal results.  Indians left fielders are batting a combined .181 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI.  They have struck out 44 times compared to 32 hits and amassed a .548 OPS.  Willingham, on the other hand, is stroking it at a .271 clip with 8 taters and 29 driven in.  His OPS sits a career high .934, good for 9th in the American league.  All of that for a team with the worst record in baseball.   That OPS would be the best among Tribesmen by nearly 50 points (Asdrubal Cabrera - .886), the homers tied for the team lead (8 - Jason Kipnis) and the RBI just 1 off the pace (Kipnis - 30).  Can you imagine Jason Kipnis' bat in the order twice?  The left fielders' combined WAR is -0.8 (meaning their presence has cost the Tribe a game), whereas Willingham's WAR is 1.2.  Let me say this as simply as possible: if the Indians had given up on Sizemore and signed Willingham, their record today would be 29-19 rather than 27-21.  That's what I call a pretty damn big mistake.

Back in his heyday I can remember seeing a sign, all magic marker and poster board, touting "In Grady we trust!"  Times change and players age, so let's hope that the misplaced faith of the organization, this colossal blunder of Chris Antonetti and woManny Acta, does not keep this squad from the post-season.

Roll Tribe.

Cheers.